First off, the popular vote percentages.
Now, for the even more shaky art of seat projections. These come from Forum, Threehundredeight, and Daveberta average pool responses.
Using the Hill & Knowlton Election Seat predictor tool, I've arrived at my own seat projections using the various poll firms voting intention data both on a whole Alberta basis and a regional basis. Both of these methods yield a slim Wildrose majority, varying in composition based on full province data or regional data.
Full province data yields the following:
Regional Data yields the following:
However, of course, all of this information is based on decided voters. The undecided will determine the fate of our province. The H&K election predictor allows you to see the impact of votes swinging from one camp to another. Let's evaluate a few scenarios based on province-wide data.
1. Half of Liberal leaning voters vote PC to stop a Wildrose government from forming
Minority Wildrose government with 43 seats, PC 37, NDP 7
2. Half of all NDP leaning voters vote PC to stop a Wildrose government from forming
Wildrose majority with 44 seats, PC 41, NDP 2
3. Half of Liberal and half of NDP voters vote PC
PC majority at 45, Wildrose 40, NDP 2
4. 100% of Liberal voters toss their support behind the NDP
Still results in a Wildrose majority
5. NDPers listen to Raj Sherman and toss all their support behind him
Still a Wildrose majority
So you can see from this that there are only two scenarios where Wildrose does NOT form a majority government. Either Liberal voters swing in large numbers to the PCs, or both Liberal and NDP voters swing to the PCs.
So, given all this, and that a good 20% of those planning to vote are currently undecided, and of those, more are leaning toward the PCs, I am predicting a close Wildrose MINORITY government. After looking at all this I still stand beside my original predictions for the Daveberta election prediction pool posted here.
I will post how well all of these aligned with the actual results after the election as well as the results of my alternative election.
I know, you can't contain your excitement. It's okay. I totally understand.